Kristi Noem: Rebrand Gone Wild
Plus: micro-malnutrition trend & Nap Ministry, call your lawyer!
The governor of South Dakota did the impossible. All while proving no one should overestimate their brand power or audience loyalty.
The rancher’s daughter may have forgotten that most of America sees now dogs not just as people but better than people.
78% of Americans consider their pet to be their child
69% love their pet more than some family members
83% of Millennials would rather hang with their pet than people
80% would rather hang with a pet than go on a 1st date (see also: the current collapse of dating apps)1
More Americans live with pets than with children.
Off the ranch, dogs are not a working asset class, but rare unconditional connections in our digitally deprived age.
The same deprivation that has ignited the political divide that lifted her up. Know your audience!
Kristi, John Wick has a body count of 415 and it all hinged on the killing of his dog. Do you not have polling? Or Netflix??
But that’s not the real story here. It’s about going so all in you forget what your brand equities and audience really are.
The Backstory for A Christian Movie
Unlike others in her niche, her Christian, rural and outdoors background isn’t marketing window dressing. It is real.
At 22, Noem dropped out of college—already a married mom—to help her siblings run her family ranch when her dad died suddenly at 49.
The story is compelling, even though it’s not a “Rain on the Scarecrow” situation. They had money. Regardless, she leveraged a “death tax” radicalization into a rapid move into South Dakota politics.
NOTE: Often left out: Democrat Tom Daschle paved her way into politics.
To her credit, she completed her degree years later. But the real education came from the Trump marketing machine.
Enter the Ambition Monster
Also left out: Noem campaigned for Rubio and was loudly anti-Trump at first.
This was her look back then (please excuse the watermarks)
After Rubio dropped out, she was Team Ted Cruz. Like many, she fell in Trump line after the election.
The Covid mask wars gave her a national spotlight and that moved her from regional power player to inner circle. After she invited Trump to Mount Rushmore for July 4, 2020, things changed.
The Babe-fication of Mrs. Noem
She was already ambitious, fit and attractive—from my research it seems she always was.
But Noem rapidly morphed into the Women of Trump™ aesthetic I’ve already written about:
This morning on Face the Nation:
I wondered if this aesthetic was trending for GOP South Dakota women politicians. Nope. The rest fall into well-groomed Middle America types:
Her national aspirations are literally on display. The GOP started leveraging the Western Barbie vibe aggressively. I hope she got a percentage of the merch.
The Good (Hot) Christian Woman story got complicated when Corey Lewandowski came on as an advisor and rumored affair.
Very on brand for MAGA. Not super on brand for South Dakota or the God-fearing woman trope (God-fearing men: philander as needed, you’re exempt).
USA! USA! What about SD?!
Noem’s national aspirations may have started tiring the folks at home.
In October 2023, Noem wasn’t killing it in South Dakota. 38% of South Dakotans then polled said Trump should pick a different VP, and only 23% of those polled were Dems. The state is largely Republican and Independent.
Her disapproval rating amongst SD women was 10-points higher than men with female approval of 35%. She had less than 30% approval with voters under 30.
In short, her base is older white men.
She was soon to see flying too close to the sun rarely works out well for women—and it doesn’t fly well in the upper midwest, period.
Take one: Veneergate.
Cashing in can get expensive. In February, South Dakotans got annoyed that she was schilling TX dentists in an infomercial about her dental work.
Watchdogs were elated they could see if she was violating any policies on spon-con or the misue of government/campaign assets.
Then: Cricketgate.
Her polling tanked on contact. Here’s one of the more specific poll results I’ve seen:
“A plurality of Americans who do not like dogs still disapprove of the governor’s action.
While 87% of Americans who love dogs disapprove of what the governor did, so too do 48% of Americans who do not care for the animals.”
This morning she doubled down yet again saying Biden’s dog should be put down for biting Secret Service agents.
Lying about meeting Kim Jong Un doesn’t help, but honestly, it’s unlikely that people care as much about that.
Girls: Stay in Your Lane
Sarah Palin walked so Noem could run. Well, so she could have run.
But some things don’t change: Women can be aggressive. But not too aggressive.
To be clear: This is not just a GOP thing. It’s an American thing.
Noem’s current narrative is she’s “Tired of politicians pretending to be something that they’re not.”
Same, girl. But most of America loves their illusions.
Remember Your Core Audience
America loves dogs AND illusions.
And older white guys still want to see women a certain way. Hot is a lot of it, but not all.
You can dance for Trump. But you’re not Trump. Even Ivanka Trump and Melania Trump are not Trump.
Republican women are rewarded for outrageous behavior and statements—until they aren’t. Marjorie Taylor Greene is being tossed under the Trump bus for getting too big for her MAGA hat.
Noem wrote this book for one man, one who hates dogs. But he loves adoration more and doesn’t need to take on anyone else’s baggage. Especially if it comes in a purse!
So Noem’s getting tossed, too. Steve Bannon and Don, Jr. were amongst the first to do the throwing.
I can see where the playbook gets confusing. You think you’re doing what they want.
Don Jr has killed an endangered sheep and an elephant. Men and even high school boys can be rewarded for once shocking things in this particular niche market. I won’t go too deep because this is a marketing newsletter, not political, but we could do this all day.
But women shooting dogs (the goat rage-killing that followed is actually more unhinged) pushes the Western Barbie story into ick territory.
No Woman is Untouchable (Pun Unintended)
People are asking why she didn’t stop her ghost writer, but I’m wondering if Lewandowski or someone else urged her to include it.
Do we really think these memoirs aren’t vetted by strategists? Someone either thought it was a good idea, used her as a market test—or worse. I leave the conspiracy theorists to suss that out.
And while Noem still believes that doubling and tripling down on it—Standing Her Ground—is helping, the “working dog” defense does not play in the suburbs. Even the hardass rural men I grew up around weep when their hunting dogs die.
Ol’ Yeller has been replaced by dog sympathy cards at Walgreen’s.
As David French noted:
The scandals and conspiracies that don’t seem to touch Trump at all can still bring down other Republicans, including the MAGA candidates who hug Trump the hardest.
There is one untouchable in MAGAland: Trump.
South Dakota is the west. America is not. Both are still a man’s world.
MONDAY UPDATE <NOT ON AUDIO>
Seeing Mrs. Noem continue to double down both her actions and on truth-telling in politics has me spellbound.
She’s doing the circuit, calling Nikki Haley a liar and shopping her “I want the truth to be out there” narrative.
This, after the “truth is relative” era ushered in by her own organization.
As a fellow (?) daughter of the rural Upper Midwest I recognize this: It’s the “calling bullshit” that is common in rural/blue collar america, and nearly unheard of outside it.
It’s a very male power form of power in those circles, and those circles are the ones she’s moved in.
She’s either committing political suicide or putting all the chips on one very big, bold form of doublespeak.
Ozempic Update: The Coming Nano Indulgence
Loved this astute prediction on how in the future, Big Food will have two levels:
Cheap, Sam’s Club-sized junk food for the non-injected class (see: food as it’s been going)
Highly precious, highly indulgent, elite small serving decadence for the injected class (see: giant margins, crazy products)
This “microdosing to malnutrition” pipeline will leave both sides still malnourished but one skinny.
As the author notes, few will preserve their tiny appetite aperture for a perfectly steamed broccoli floret. Bring on the micro-nano-sliders!
This new skin care line owes a LOT to Tricia Hersey’s Nap Ministry, Rest is Resistance platform. Except Nap Ministry is all about racial justice and equity and was created by a Black woman.
Not a good look.
But wait, the brand goes on to do all of these things they stand against:
Hero ingredient: Retinal vs Retinol
Industry playbook: Before/After, soft consumer studies, hero trends
Same beauty language we’ve been doing as industry since the 90s (guilty 🙋♀️)
The doublespeak is rich and thick - probably like the moisturizer (?)
No shade to following the playbook. But why double-speak it while commercializing racial justice platforms as skin care to “make sure your skin glows like you’ve slept, even if you haven’t.”
Merchification Marches On!
The John Legend-Christy Teggin industrial complex has launched a dog food brand with merch unapologetically at the center of it. I do love the sweatshirt.
It’s almost as though CPG brands are being launched just so the merch can exist.
New Ingredient Aalert: Mesquite
If, like me, you love chocolate, check out this new brand made from mesquite, not cocoa beans.
Until I saw this brand I did not realize mesquite was a fruit-producing tree.
The mesquite base has major protein, major fiber and supposedly tastes great.
Millennial bland packaging is so dead.
MARKETING TAKEAWAYS this week:
If you do polls, heed them. It’s incredible to me how much brand research sits in email inboxes, dies slowly in decks and does not get deployed.
Fiber is the new sugar.
How to pleasure the Ozempic dulled masses will be a challenging and interesting new marketing opportunity, as I’ve said before.
Authenticity™ still works, being truly real rarely does on a mass-market level.
Survey : Pet Pulse